Now that the assembly elections in the three Hindi Heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are done and dusted, it will be useful to analyse the voting pattern to discern why the Indian National Congress (INC) lost all these states to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Ishaan Khaperde and I have analysed the voting data of these states available on the Election Commission website (https://results.eci.gov.in/AcResu.../partywiseresult-S12.htm). The analysis reveals that in Madhya Pradesh in 53 of the total 163 assembly constituencies where the BJP won, the combined vote of the INC and that of other parties and independents who were Congress rebels, was more than that of the winning BJP candidate. The details are as follows -
The votes garnered by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alone along with that of the INC would have ensured victory for the combine in 24 seats mostly in the northern belt bordering Uttar Pradesh.
The votes got by a combination of the INC with BSP, Samajwadi Party (SP), Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP) and others would have ensured victory for the combine in13 seats.
The GGP alone would have ensured victory along with the INC in 4 seats and the SP alone would have ensured victory along with the INC in 1 seat.
INC rebels, who fought as independents and garnered substantial number of votes spoilt the party for the INC in 11 seats.
Thus, if in accordance with the spirit of the INDIA alliance the Congress had struck up a pre-poll alliance, especially with the BSP, SP and GGP and chosen its candidates more judiciously in the seats where the rebels upset the apple cart, then even with the current voting pattern this combine would have got 119 seats and the BJP would have been reduced to 110 seats. This despite the fact that the combined voteshare of the BSP, SP and GGP in 2023 has declined from the last elections in 2018 by 4.5% which went to the BJP. The new Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), which stands for the rights of the Bhil Adivasis and proposes a separate state to be carved out for them from the four states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, made a debut in these elections by winning one seat from the two that it fought.
What is important is that a credible pre-poll alliance would have had a positive impact on the mindset of the voters and so it is possible that such a pre-poll combination under the aegis of the INDIA alliance would have resulted in the BJP losing voteshare and even more seats instead.
In the last assembly elections in 2018 also the absence of an alliance with the BSP, SP and GGP had cost the INC dear as it had just managed to scrape through with a thin majority losing heavily in the northern belt. If it had had a pre-poll alliance in 2018 then the combination would have got a huge number of seats and been immune to the split that brought about the downfall of the INC government after only fifteen months in power.
Indeed, the INC in Madhya Pradesh has been plagued by both arrogance of its leaders and in fighting between them which has prevented the party from working cohesively within and also aligning with other parties like the BSP, SP and GGP. The refusal of Digvijay Singh to give up his Rajya Sabha seat for Jyotiraditya Scindia when it came up for re-election, resulted in the latter going over to the BJP with his faction of legislators bringing down the INC Government.
A similar situation prevailed in Rajasthan. The INC lost in 115 seats to the BJP and of these in as many as 56, its votes and those of other non BJP parties or independents were together more than that of the BJP as follows -
1. Independents alone along with the INC would have ensured victory in 18 seats.
2. The Rashtriya Lok Dal alone with the INC would have ensured victory in 12 seats.
3. The Bharat Adivasi Party alone with the INC would have ensured victory in 9 seats.
4. The BSP alone with the INC would have ensured victory in 5 seats.
5. The Azad Samaj Party alone with the INC would have ensured victory in 5 seats.
6. The CPIM alone with the INC would have ensured victory in 3 seats.
7. A combination of parties and independents with the INC would have ensured victory in 4 seats.
Thus, even if some of the independents in these seats and the 8 who won the elections were not all rebels of the INC, a pre-poll seat sharing understanding would definitely have resulted in the victory of this non-BJP alliance. In fact it did have an alliance with the RLD which is a member of the INDIA alliance but in the end the two parties fought against each other and both came a cropper as a result. Clearly, the INC, like in Madhya Pradesh, has to both set its own house in order internally to prevent this large scale rebellion that is taking place and also form credible alliances with other parties if it wants to retain any relevance.
The Bharat Adivasi Party won three seats and got significant votes in 9 other seats in the tribal belt in southern Rajasthan. It got a seat in Madhya Pradesh also bordering Rajasthan. There is, consequently, every possibility of its emerging as a significant force for Bhil Adivasi rights in the western Indian region in the near future.
Chhattisgarh saw the INC losing in 54 seats to the BJP and in one seat to the GGP. In the those lost to the BJP in as many as 16 seats, its votes and those of other non-BJP parties or independents were more than that of the BJP as follows -
1. The INC along with a combination of other parties like the GGP, Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), BSP, CPI etc would have won in 10 seats.
2. The GGP alone along with the INC would have ensured victory in 4 seats.
3. The BSP alone along with the INC would have ensured victory in 2 seats.
Thus, with the present voting pattern, if there had been a pre-poll alliance of the INC with other non-BJP parties, then that alliance would have won in 53 seats and the BJP would have got 37 seats.
This is similar to the situation seen earlier in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Last year in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh also the fragmentation of the non-BJP votes due to the INC's insistence on going it alone had resulted in a similar debacle. Analysis shows that in as many as 172 of the 255 seats that the BJP won in Uttar Pradesh, if a pre-poll alliance of the non-BJP parties had been formed, it would have won instead.
The evidence is thus overwhelming that in the Hindi heartland states, the INC has lost its capacity to win elections on its own and it must accommodate other non-BJP parties in a pre-poll alliance. It can act as coordinator of the alliance but it can't lead it and demand an unrealistic seat share. These elections had provided an excellent opportunity to get the INDIA alliance going on the ground but it has been wasted. It remains to be seen whether the INC will learn from this debacle and mend its ways so as to form a credible INDIA alliance for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections next year.
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